FermTech briefing: Wine isn’t dying – we’re just misreading it

While attending an Entrepreneurs’ Organisation Accelerator session in Cape Town, I listened to a founder of a rapidly scaling payment platform describe a challenge he hadn’t anticipated.

In the early days, when the team was small, strategy and decision-making were contained – everyone in the room understood the context. But as the business grew, those same open conversations began to carry unintended consequences. Ideas, hypotheses, even passing thoughts were overheard and interpreted as instruction. People began acting on conversations that were never meant to be direction. Nothing had changed in what was being said – only in how it was being received.

It struck me how relevant this is to the current narrative around wine.

We are living in a time where access to information is immediate, constant, and overwhelming. Headlines, reports and opinions are consumed at such speed that they quickly become accepted as fact, often without interrogation. In many cases, a repeated narrative becomes reality. In the wine industry, the phrase “wine is in decline” has begun to take on this role – echoed so frequently that it is rarely challenged. But what if we are misinterpreting what we are hearing?

A broader look at global data suggests exactly that. Figures from the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV), alongside United Nations population data, show that while per capita consumption has declined over time, total global wine consumption has remained relatively stable for decades – now hovering around 214 million hectolitres, the exact same volume as in 1961.

Admittedly, wine consumption peaked in 2018 at 244 million hectolitres, and gradually decreased. The peak of global wine consumption in the late 2010s did not mark the beginning of decline, but rather the end of an era defined by volume-driven consumption.

The decline from peak consumption is not the result of a single shock, but rather the convergence of multiple structural shifts – economic pressure, changing consumption habits, increased competition, and a move toward premiumisation. What appears on the surface as a decline in demand is, in reality, a recalibration of how wine is consumed. The category has not lost relevance; it has lost volume at the expense of value.

This shift becomes even clearer when we examine local market behaviour. According to recent SAWIS data, total domestic still wine sales declined by approximately 12% over the past year. At face value, this appears to support the narrative of a shrinking category.

But a deeper look at price segmentation tells a very different story. The sharpest declines are concentrated at the lowest price points, with wines below R40 dropping as much as 58%. In contrast, higher value segments are growing – particularly above R150, where growth exceeds 25%, and above R200, where demand is up more than 30%. Even the R40–R50 bracket has shown strong growth, suggesting a clear shift in consumer entry point.

If wine were truly in structural decline, this contraction would be evident across all price segments. Instead, it is isolated at the lower end, while premium categories continue to expand. This is not a loss of relevance, but a change in behaviour. Consumers are drinking with greater intent – placing more value on quality, occasion and experience than on sheer volume.

We have seen how quickly perception can drive reaction. During the COVID-19 pandemic, when the South African wine industry faced prohibition, one well-known producer pivoted into olive oil to remain commercially active. What stood out was not the idea itself, but the significant time, energy and cost required to execute that shift. It highlighted how quickly businesses can move away from their core in response to uncertainty. Businesses react quickly – sometimes irrationally – when the environment feels uncertain or threatening.

That does not mean we should resist innovation. But it does suggest we should remain grounded in our strengths and avoid overcorrecting in response to narratives that may not fully reflect reality. The data points to an industry that is evolving, not disappearing.

Perhaps the real risk is not declining consumption, but misreading the moment.

• Clayton Reabow owns FermTech Solutions, the South African distributor of 2B FermControl – a range of organic fermentation products for minimal-intervention winemaking. With more than 22 years’ experience in the local wine industry, Reabow combines winemaking expertise with a practical understanding of supply chains and production. His goal is to help producers maintain quality while staying efficient and competitive in a changing market.