Tim James: Vines getting planted and uprooted, and wines getting made and drunk

It’s all very well drinking the stuff and knowing the grapes its made from and suchlike, but we could also do with a perspective of the larger picture of the greater endeavour – the industry – each bottle is part of. A rather gloomy picture, on the whole. So, time for some more statistics, following on my look a few weeks back at the connection between value and packaging. Back to the latest Sawis booklet of statistics, supplemented, for an international perspective, by the World Vine and Wine Sector in 2023 report from the OIV, the International Organisation of Vine and Wine.

The OIV gives the figures behind the international situation of adversity (and its reflection in South African wine) sketched last week by Michael Fridjhon. Global wine consumption in 2023 is estimated to have dropped by 2.6% compared to 2022’s already low figures. Higher prices for wine, driven by inflationary pressure on production and consumption costs, are easy to blame. The volume of wine exported around the world fell – while the price per litre of exported wine was at a record high. That improvement in prices was true for South Africa – but the drop in exports has been pretty serious, over 20%. It does help to explain why it’s rather easier this year to find more normally very rare wines sitting on local wine shelves, though I don’t think prices have been pushed down (quite the reverse in the case of some of the most successful and prestigious producers).

Arguably fortunately for the world’s producers, I suppose, international production was down again, by 10%. Not since 1961 has so little wine been made around the world. Weird climatic extremes were largely to blame, together with fungal diseases. Those diseases were certainly responsible in South Africa for a 10% decline in production. Incidentally, Australia fared even worse, with a decline of some 26% – total production there was not all that much higher than here; though Australia’s exports were a touch healthier (though also down on 2022).

South Africa’s decline in wine-vineyard area continued in 2023 – emphatically below 90 000 hectares, down from just under 100 000 ten years ago. The Sawis booklet goes into plenty of detail about plantings and uprootings. Very noticeably, it is the hot, dry irrigated Northern Cape that has had by far the largest reduction – I’d guess because the prices for their fruit were most marginal, and because it might well be easier in that region to profitably change crop (let’s hope so; we’re not likely to miss the wine particularly). Vineyard area there is down by nearly a half in the past decade, and the Sawis tables show that the Northern Cape was the only area to not plant a single vine last year, while it uprooted 519 ha in just the one year. Robertson, a very much much larger area, uprooted 670 ha but also planted 343 ha.

I mentioned a few weeks ago the interesting evolution of packaging in South Africa (notably the decline in the sale of glass bottles and the increase in bag-in-box and tetrapack). Which leaves the question of what’s in those packages.

Interestingly to me, for still wines, red and white are pretty equal in 2023: both just over 155 milion litres, with rosé about a third of that number, at 55 million. Firstly, those sold under varietal names. For whites, sauvignon blanc is way, way ahead (15.3 million litres), followed by chenin (just under 7 m, and chardonnay not far behind at 4.8 m litres. Named blends at 3.7 m litres.

The named reds are much closer – and the blends here are by far the biggest category at 14.6 m litres. Merlot is at 7 m, followed by cab, then pinotage, then shiraz at 4.6 m litres.

Nameless mash-ups are bigger in both cases. “Other white” and “dry white” total nearly 24 m litres. “Other red” and “dry red” total 67 m litres. But it is the sweet versions which overwhelm the drinking stats. 100 million litres of natural sweet and semi-sweet whites – two thirds of the total white wines. A bit more than half that for reds (56 m). And 48 m litres of sweet rosé – more than 90% of the rosés made.

Sparkling wine of all colours is under 9 m litres, with cap classiques about half of that. Fortified is a serious category at 26.3 m litres, but at the opposite end of the alcohol scale, low-alc and no-alc wines are still essentially irrelevant to the wine-drinking statistics. Fortunately, perhaps, as those stats are depressing enough already.

• Tim James is one of South Africa’s leading wine commentators, contributing to various local and international wine publications. His book Wines of South Africa – Tradition and Revolution appeared in 2013.